I thought I had got over this mid-life crisis thing, but if I'm being honest things are probably getting worse. Polo lesson tomorrow morning. What am I trying to prove....really?? I can hardly ride and in fact am sporting a black eye this week having whacked myself with a leading rein last Sunday. This on top of having had my foot crushed by a pony just before the Marathon. Horses and me don't mix that well.
I hope you don't feel I'm flogging a dead one by including the call on Oil prices below. We have been going on about this for months now and clearly the noise levels have risen to extreme levels. Actually, in the near term, we expect some downward pressure on prices from today's levels, driven by a ramp up in Saudi production, but our belief is that we had better get used to the fact that the oil price is likely to remain stubbornly above $30 for the next couple of years at least. I have been grappling with the conundrum posed by this view. Can you be bullish on the oil stocks and pretty relaxed about the prospect for equity markets generally? I still think that the oil stocks are the outstanding opportunity in the market, and inflationary and interest rate pressures are mounting, but my view is that we should look through this transition period and anticipate corporate growth surprising on the upside, engendered by some recovery in pricing power and supported by a reasonably robust economic environment. It's not the time to be too bearish about stock markets. House prices....now that's another matter!
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