5th May, 2006

Buddha's birthday so seemed appropriate to drop you a line from under the tree. I have been terribly quiet this week. Sorry. Other than a missive on PetroChina I have been sitting on the sidelines with many Asian markets on holiday and in awe of the markets' insouciant reaction to the hike in Chinese interest rates and even more stunningly, the collapse in the US$. Why people think the Fed can do anything but hike rates in the light of 4.8% 1Q GDP growth, commodity prices going through the roof and the currency disappearing down the swanee I do not know. This party is coming to an end. You probably have it already but do take a look at Bits & Pieces this week which highlights repports by Chris Wood and Dr. Jim. And as for wage pressures in the US how about this from a contact of mine on the spot so too speak.....



Just walked past peninsular hotel on 5th.......doorman was squeezing blackheads using newly polished brass sign as "mirror". Is the labour mkt here too tight?!



I have to admit, my mind is more focussed on wine this afternoon than equities or currencies, having had a meeting with my wine merchant earlier today. The excitement on the 2005's not withstanding - the pick of the 2005's is Pontet-Canet by the way - wine is the outstanding long term investment opportunity. No capital gains tax and if it flops you can drink it. Amazing fact....Justerini & Brooks sells more wine by value into Singapore than it does in the USA. If you are a believer in China you've got to add wine to your portfolio. And beyond China, J&B are adding new markets in Asia by the day, the latest one being Vietnam. I've been meaning to write about one of the world's best performing stock markets for some time now. I can do no better than repeat something I wrote in late 2004 when I was meant to be talking about UK/European large caps.
19th May 2006

Just back from a visit to Asia where I attended our Taiwan and China Forums. It was my first visit to both Taipei and Shanghai since 1995. Whilst Taipei hadn’t noticeably changed save for the construction of the tallest building in the world, Shanghai, on the other hand, was a little different to when I had last left it. What had been a sea of paddy fields on the East side of the river is now a gawdy mass of skyscrapers ( which, some say, are now sinking ). Talking about going from the sublime to the ridiculous, I picked up a copy of the South China Morning Post during one of my transits through Hong Kong last week and feel like relaying two contrasting stories I noticed. Asia is a land of contradictions no question.

Front page news was the report of a ferry from Central to one of the outlying islands which had inexplicably taken a sharp turn to the right and ran aground onto rocks. Happily there were no fatalities, but there was an extensive interview with a 78 year old lady who had cut her chin in the crash. The report wrote that she had been on her way home after selling vegetables and fruit in Peel Street ( appropriately enough ) and that was she most concerned to retrieve her cart and goods which she had left on the boat. “The goods which are still on the ferry cost HK$200 (£15). Theyare my valuable possessions and I want them back” she said, bursting into tears. Poor thing.

One page on in the same edition was the "Quote of the Week" section with this:

“After two hours in the air, I felt really claustrophobic and had an anxiety attack....My driver in economy class told me the situation was even worse there, with at least two people lying down in the walkway.” (Frequent flier Amisha Hira, describing a London bound Cathay Pacific flight that was forced to return to Hong Kong with a faulty air-conditioning valve. ) Oh dear me. How many of you thought, initially, she was talking about the pilot?



I am going to sit down and write some serious thoughts about my visits, but I only got in late yesterday afternoon so excuse me. Too late, I might add to get back in time for my Thursday evening polo session. Lots of toys were thrown out of the pram. There is not so much to choose between me and Amisha if the truth be told. Suffice to say that if you have the time to read the following attachment which is the latest InfoFax from Dr. Jim, I was the brave, albeit red-faced, lone soul, hand in the air waving the red warning flag.



It's all been happening whilst I was away. Hen has announced she has a boyfriend. Called Felix, for goodness sake. And she has won a part in the school production of Joseph and his Amazing Technicolour Dreamcoat. There was only one role for her really. She tells me she gave her backside a slap and looked alluringly at the selectors and that was it. Next thing, she was Potiphar's Wife. She tells me she has learnt her lines already, but as I recall all she has to say in the entire performance is "Come and lie with me love".